Rick

High Octane Trading using Leveraged ETF’s

Posted on by Rick

Trading leveraged ETFs can be dangerous, especially when you over-trade or leverage your position size too big for your account. Most of the leveraged ETFs warn about holding these positions long-term and suggest that they should only be used for day trading. Despite those warnings, traders have held these ETFs longer terms.

As a general guideline, trading triple leveraged index ETFs will have a full position using only 1/3 of the portfolio. This assumes that the remaining 2/3rds of your account is in cash or as an alternative trade the Tactical Asset Allocation’s Income Strategy which uses a Dual Momentum algorithm to determine its monthly position. As of July 2021, the income strategy has averaged 8.35% per year for 11 years of history with 0.01 correlation, virtually no correlation, to the S&P 500.

This blog will explore how the Tactical Asset Allocation’s Leveraged Strategy performs compared to just holding UPRO the S&P 500 triple leverage ETF. The first point of comparison is how the buy and hold strategy compared to the Leveraged Strategy. The image shows the US Market Correlation of ProShares UltraPro S&P5000 ETF UPRO is 0.99 or in other words, very correlated with the US market. In contrast, the Tactical Asset Allocation’s Leveraged Strategy has a 0.43 Us Market Correlation, which is just slightly correlated. The Leveraged Strategy has an average 11-year return of 53.18%, as starting balance of $100,000 in 11 years grows to $8,802,856. Several other measures indicate this strategy has advantages like less volatility, outperformed on the best and worse years, only 59% of the max drawdown, and a Sharpe Ratio of 1.28 versus 0.90, which is a measure of the risk-adjusted return.

Sign up for Cromer Wealth Management’s Tactical Asset Allocation membership to get the current allocations. These trades are available to Gold members.

Leverage ETF Strategy
Leveraged ETF Strategy 11-year Results
Rick

Efficient Frontier

Posted on by Rick

In finance, the efficient frontier is a graphical representation of the set of portfolios that offer the highest expected return for a given level of risk or the lowest risk for a given level of expected return. This concept was introduced by Harry Markowitz in his 1952 paper “Portfolio Selection,” which laid the foundation for modern portfolio theory (MPT).

Bonds are typically considered to have some risk because they are not completely risk-free. While bonds are generally seen as less risky than stocks, they are not without risk, and this is why they are included on the efficient frontier graph. Here are some key reasons why bonds are considered to have some risk:

  1. Interest Rate Risk: Bonds are sensitive to changes in interest rates. When interest rates rise, the value of existing bonds typically falls, and when rates fall, bond values rise. This is known as interest rate risk or market risk, and it affects the total return of a bond portfolio.
  2. Credit Risk: Bonds are also subject to credit risk, which is the risk that the issuer may default on interest or principal payments. Bonds with lower credit ratings are more likely to default and, therefore, have higher credit risk.
  3. Inflation Risk: Bonds may also be exposed to inflation risk. If the yield on a bond does not keep pace with inflation, the real (inflation-adjusted) return on the bond may be negative.
  4. Liquidity Risk: Some bonds may be less liquid than others, meaning they cannot be easily bought or sold without significantly affecting their market price. This can create a risk for investors who need to sell bonds quickly.
  5. Reinvestment Risk: When bonds generate interest payments, the investor needs to decide how to reinvest that income. If interest rates are lower when the bond matures or when the interest payment is received, the investor may not be able to reinvest at the same rate, potentially lowering overall returns.

Here are some links to related topics for further reading:

  1. Modern Portfolio Theory: Learn more about the foundational concepts behind the efficient frontier and portfolio optimization.
  2. Risk and Return: Understand the relationship between risk and return in investing.
  3. Interest Rate Risk: Explore the concept of interest rate risk and how it affects bond prices.
  4. Credit Risk: Learn about credit risk and how it impacts the risk profile of bonds.
  5. Inflation Risk: Understand the concept of inflation risk and its implications for bond investors.
  6. Liquidity Risk: Explore the risks associated with the liquidity of bond investments.
  7. Reinvestment Risk: Learn about reinvestment risk and its effects on bond returns.

In summary, bonds are included on the efficient frontier to reflect the fact that they are not risk-free investments. Their risk profile, including interest rate risk, credit risk, and other factors, makes them an important component of a diversified investment portfolio and contributes to the overall shape of the efficient frontier.