Tactical Asset Allocation Archives - Cromer Wealth Management, LLC

MOO IMBALANCE 250 MLN SELL-SIDE

Posted on May 8, 2024 by Rick

I asked the question, what does the term “MOO IMBALANCE 250 MLN SELL-SIDE” mean and how can I see what the current values is? Let’s break it down:

MOO (Market-on-Open) Order:
- A MOO order is executed at the opening price of a security as soon as the market opens or shortly after it opens for trading.
- It is a non-limit order, meaning its execution price matches the security’s opening price.
- MOO orders are commonly used by investors and traders to participate in the market right at the beginning of the trading day.
Imbalance:
- An imbalance occurs when there is a significant difference between the buy-side (demand) and sell-side (supply) orders for a particular stock.
- In your case, the sell-side imbalance indicates that there are more sell orders than buy orders for a specific security.
250 MLN:
- This likely represents the magnitude of the imbalance. In this context, it means there is a sell-side imbalance of 250 million shares.

To check the current values of MOO imbalances, you can refer to specific financial platforms or exchanges that provide real-time information. Here are a few options:

Market Chameleon: They show Market-On-Close (MOC) stock order imbalances greater than 50,000 shares. The close imbalance information is disseminated approximately 15 minutes before the market close (please note that their website data is delayed by 15 minutes). MOC orders are typically used by ETFs and mutual funds to make changes to portfolios, so order imbalance information may indicate portfolio adjustments¹.
NYSE Exchange Proprietary Market Data: The Order Imbalances feed provides real-time publication of buy and sell imbalances sent during auctions throughout the trading day for all listed securities. You can find this information for NYSE, NYSE American, and NYSE Arca ².

Remember that these sources provide real-time data, and you can explore them to stay informed about market imbalances and other relevant information.

Learn more 1 marketchameleon.com 2 nyse.com 3 nasdaq.com 4 marketbeat.com

High Octane Trading using Leveraged ETF’s

Posted on April 10, 2024 by Rick

Trading leveraged ETFs can be dangerous, especially when you over-trade or leverage your position size too big for your account. Most of the leveraged ETFs warn about holding these positions long-term and suggest that they should only be used for day trading. Despite those warnings, traders have held these ETFs longer terms.

As a general guideline, trading triple leveraged index ETFs will have a full position using only 1/3 of the portfolio. This assumes that the remaining 2/3rds of your account is in cash or as an alternative trade the Tactical Asset Allocation’s Income Strategy which uses a Dual Momentum algorithm to determine its monthly position. As of July 2021, the income strategy has averaged 8.35% per year for 11 years of history with 0.01 correlation, virtually no correlation, to the S&P 500.

This blog will explore how the Tactical Asset Allocation’s Leveraged Strategy performs compared to just holding UPRO the S&P 500 triple leverage ETF. The first point of comparison is how the buy and hold strategy compared to the Leveraged Strategy. The image shows the US Market Correlation of ProShares UltraPro S&P5000 ETF UPRO is 0.99 or in other words, very correlated with the US market. In contrast, the Tactical Asset Allocation’s Leveraged Strategy has a 0.43 Us Market Correlation, which is just slightly correlated. The Leveraged Strategy has an average 11-year return of 53.18%, as starting balance of $100,000 in 11 years grows to $8,802,856. Several other measures indicate this strategy has advantages like less volatility, outperformed on the best and worse years, only 59% of the max drawdown, and a Sharpe Ratio of 1.28 versus 0.90, which is a measure of the risk-adjusted return.

Sign up for Cromer Wealth Management’s Tactical Asset Allocation membership to get the current allocations. These trades are available to Gold members.

Leverage ETF Strategy — Leveraged ETF Strategy 11-year Results

A New Dual Momentum Trading Strategy

Posted on October 21, 2021 by Rick

For next month’s allocations, I will be introducing another trading strategy. It is derived from the current dmSingle strategy. This strategy has about a twelve-year historical backtest. This strategy attempts to be in the right market index at the right time and into a risk-off strategy if the market indexes are not performing well.

28.26% CAGR,
1.19 Sharpe Ratio
0.05 US Mkt Correlation

The new one is called dmSingle2. This new strategy should be traded as an alternative to dmSingle because in many ways is similar to its original rules. I consider dmSingle2 to be more conservative and has a much longer historical backtesting period of 19 years, which includes the 2008/09 financial crises.

Normally I would like all the statistics of the original strategy. But, it didn’t include trading during the financial crisis sell-off. I will add the new strategy to our strategy matrix. Look at how it performs combined with the other strategies to determine how much you want to allocate to this strategy. I believe the results will be more meaningful when combined with the Model strategies which have historical test periods of up to 49 years.

Performance Returns Of The Model Portfolios

Posted on July 9, 2021 by Rick

Tactical Asset Allocation membership includes several different strategies, three of those are what I call the Model Portfolios. Back-tested results of these strategies go back more than 30 years. So how are they doing this year? The following shows April’s allocation and its month-to-date and year-to-date performance results.

Sign up for Cromer Wealth Management’s Tactical Asset Allocation membership to get the current allocations. These trades are available to Gold members.

Model: Rick’s Model #3

Very conservative investment, currently, 40% of this strategy is safely in cash.

Since we are about 1/3 into the year, assuming similar results for the other 2/3rds of the year, this model has a projected return of 8%

Model: Rick’s Model #4

Conservative Investment, end-of-month max drawdown during 2008/09 financial crises was only 10.7%.

Since we are about 1/3 into the year, assuming similar results for the other 2/3rds of the year, this model has a projected return of 17%.

Model: Rick’s Model #5

Conservative Investment, end-of-month max drawdown during 2008/09 financial crises was only 10.7%. Currently, 67% of this strategy is safely in cash.

Since we are about 1/3 into the year, assuming similar results for the other 2/3rds of the year, this model has a projected return of 18%.

Managing Risk using Income Strategy

Posted on July 7, 2021 by Rick

This month, I’m going to look at the Tactical Asset Allocation bond income strategy. We will compare the performance of this strategy to the ETF IEF. The new combination has outperformed IEF consistently over the past 10 years and is not correlated at all to the S&P 500 index. This allows you to load up on these positions with the hope that a big market sell-off will not hurt this trade.

The graph below represents this new model (the blue plot) compared to IEF (the red plot). What this graph shows is that the new model has more than double the average return of IEF with a much better Sharpe Ratio. As an example here are the April 2021 allocations.

17.56% SPDR Blmbg Barclays Convert Secs ETF (CWB)
82.44% SPDR Blmbg Barclays High Yield Bd ETF (JNK)

Sign up for Cromer Wealth Management’s Tactical Asset Allocation membership to get the current allocations. These trades are available to Bronze and Gold members.